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  • Writer's pictureRealFacts Editorial Team

Tertiary Apartment Markets Set to Outperform Coastal Markets


As the multifamily industry charts its course through 2024, insights from RealPage and Markerr shed light on contrasting yet complementary aspects of the market landscape, offering a comprehensive view for stakeholders.

A chart of forecasted rent change for year-ending 2024

RealPage provides a thorough analysis of economic indicators driving multifamily markets. Projections for annual effective rent change in 2024 highlight a diverse outlook across major markets. While 12% are poised for substantial rent increases of 3% or higher, the majority anticipate moderate growth between 2% and 2.9%. Meanwhile, 38% are predicted to see growth ranging from 1% to 1.9%, with 8% facing more modest growth below 1%.

The strength of the job market serves as a pillar of economic momentum, with over 500,000 jobs added in the initial two months of 2024. Notable shifts in job growth dynamics, particularly in cities like Houston and Austin, prompt upward revisions of employment forecasts for key markets.

Markerr's report unveils a shift in rental market dynamics, with tertiary apartment markets outperforming coastal counterparts. Allentown, Pennsylvania, and Wichita, Kansas, lead the charge with projected rent growth of 4.2%, followed closely by Bridgeport, Connecticut, and Greenville, South Carolina.

Coastal hubs such as Seattle and San Antonio lag behind, signifying a shift away from traditional coastal allure towards burgeoning opportunities in tertiary markets. Rustbelt regions showcase resilience with modest declines in rental growth, while Sunbelt markets face significant downturns, particularly in Florida due to hyper supply.

Markerr forecasts a 2.5% year-over-year growth across the top 100 markets, with a promising 2.3% compound annual growth rate over the next five years. RealPage's insights further support this optimism, citing strengthening job growth data and shifts in GDP forecasts as catalysts for potential rent growth.

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