China's recent military moves near Taiwan have raised tensions in the area, causing worries about a possible conflict, though experts say this is still unlikely. These exercises happened soon after Taiwan's new President, Lai Ching-te, took office and were seen by Beijing as a reaction to Lai's tough stance on China. In his speech, Lai called for an end to China's political and military threats against Taiwan, which led to sharp criticism from Beijing. They view his approach as more assertive than previous leaders.
In a CNBC article, Sumathi Bala quotes Wen-Ti Sung, a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, saying, “This feels like a prelude to more and bigger military drills to come. This is a signal to shape international narratives. The real ‘punishment’ against Taiwan may be yet to come, for it takes time.” Analysts think Beijing’s reaction shows they may take a tougher stance on Taiwan under Lai’s leadership because of his strong claims about Taiwanese sovereignty and identity. Despite earlier hopes for a milder response from Beijing before Lai took office, his statements seem to have surprised Chinese officials. This highlights the delicate power balance in the region, with Taiwan on high alert and China showing off its military strength through exercises focused on battlefield control and precision strikes.
Taiwan’s situation is also tied to larger geopolitical tensions, especially between the U.S. and China. China's growing pressure on Taiwan, alongside its closer ties with the U.S., could make things worse, particularly if U.S. politics change. While a direct conflict remains unlikely, the frequent and intense military maneuvers suggest a period of instability in cross-strait relations, challenging regional stability and ongoing diplomatic efforts.
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