top of page
  • Writer's pictureRealFacts Editorial Team

Presidential Election: Voter Demographic Shifts and Trumps Convictions


Donald J. Trump

Close Race Within Key Demographics


The race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump for the 2024 presidential election is notably close, over the first three months of the year the candidates are no more than three points apart in national polling averages. Donald Trump has consistently held a narrow lead, a first for him as he never led in general-election polling averages in his previous 2016 and 2020 campaigns. Trump leads in several key swing states, including: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which he lost in 2020. This poses a significant concern for Biden and is likely to determine the 2024 outcome.

A small but crucial group of voters who supported Biden in the last election are now indicating a shift in their allegiance. A statistical model built from YouGov survey data, which you can view here (combined_yahoo_20240606.pdf (d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net)), includes demographic profiles, voting history, and voting intentions of over a thousand people surveyed weekly, shows that racial minorities and young voters are moving away from Biden, contrary to constantly voting Democrat in those categories. Racial minorities and young voters seem to be one of the main causes of this swing and if maintained can be the leading cause to Trump’s reelection. The YouGov survey also uncovered that religion emerges as the strongest predictor of voting intention, with 73% of Mormons and evangelical voters supporting Trump, compared to only 13% of atheists.


Unlike the sharp realignments of 2016 and 2020, where Trump attracted working-class white voters and lost college-educated ones, this year's swing voters are more demographically alike: young, black or Hispanic, and city dwellers, suggesting weaker party alliances and less political engagement. However Trump still holds the majority in the working class while cutting into the minority and city share of voters that primary vote Democrat.


Trump’s Convictions and Financial Support Impact


Recently Trump became the first former American president to be convicted of felonies, specifically 34 counts related to election law violations involving hush money payments to Stormy Daniels. While the conviction underscores the principle that no one is above the law, it is likely to weaken rather than strengthen the rule of law in the long run. The case is susceptible to appeal due to the lack of clear precedent and the complexity of the charges, which could bolster Trump's claims of political persecution.


This legal battle has paradoxically revitalized Trump's political fortunes, unifying Republican support behind him and boosting his standing in the polls. The prosecution's impact on independent voters remains uncertain, and the situation has made it challenging for Biden's

campaign to leverage Trump's legal issues without appearing politically motivated. The conviction, originally intended to emphasize the importance of accurate record-keeping, may end up aiding Trump's bid for a second term, contrary to the prosecutors' intentions.


On the financial front, Trump is gaining significant support from billionaire backers. Notable figures like Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone, Miriam Adelson, and Bill Ackman are showing support for Trump. Elon Musk, with whom Trump previously had a contentious relationship, is also reportedly on friendlier terms with him. Despite Biden raising more money overall, Trump’s recent surge in funding, especially following his conviction in a Manhattan courtroom, signifies his growing support among wealthy Republicans who believe backing him could secure future economic benefits.


Overall, the 2024 election is shaping up to be a highly contested and unpredictable race, with significant implications for both candidates and the future of American politics.

Comments


bottom of page