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  • Writer's pictureRealFacts Editorial Team

Moderating Home Prices in Texas Could Signal Trend in Sun Belt Region

El Paso Texas

In the bustling real estate market of the Sun Belt states, where housing premiums have soared to some of the highest levels in the nation, a subtle yet significant shift is unfolding. Texas, a key player in this region, is beginning to offer some relief to home buyers. This trend could be a precursor to a broader moderation in home prices across the Sun Belt, highlighting the importance of rental rates as an early indicator of market movements.

Texas Housing Market: A Sign of Moderation

Ken H. Johnson, a real estate economist at Florida Atlantic University's College of Business, suggests that Texas' housing market might be on the cusp of moderation, presenting a more favorable landscape for buyers compared to other metropolitan areas in the Sun Belt. This insight comes from a monthly index of housing premiums and discounts co-produced by researchers from FAU and Florida International University, which monitors the 100 most populated metropolitan areas in the United States.

Overvaluation in Texas Cities

Currently, El Paso tops the list of overvalued Texas markets, with homes priced 24.2 percent above their historical average. Dallas follows closely at 22.17 percent, with McAllen at 19.15 percent, Houston at 16.02 percent, Austin at 12.46 percent, and San Antonio at 11.49 percent. These figures stand in contrast to housing premiums exceeding 30 percent in other Sun Belt markets, underscoring Texas' relatively less inflated housing costs.

The Significance of Rental Rates

"Austin stands out as an ideal option as rents are trading at a discount in the area and the housing premium is only slightly above its long-term average," Johnson notes. He emphasizes the significance of rental rates, which often precede shifts in home prices. With cities like San Antonio and Dallas also experiencing rental discounts, home prices in these areas will likely continue to moderate.

Broader Implications for the Sun Belt Region

This observation is crucial for understanding broader trends in the Sun Belt. While markets like Atlanta, Detroit, Cape Coral in Florida, and Las Vegas lead the nation in housing premiums, with overvaluations reaching nearly 41 percent in Atlanta, Texas' relatively moderate premiums suggest a different trajectory. Eli Beracha, director of FIU's Hollo School of Real Estate, points out that rental rates in these highly overvalued markets are starting to moderate as well, though they lag behind the adjustments seen in Texas.

The Index: A Tool for Predicting Market Movements

The index developed by FAU and FIU researchers utilizes publicly available data from Zillow to compare actual average home prices with long-term trends in each city. This comparison helps determine how overvalued or undervalued housing markets are, offering a valuable tool for predicting future market movements.

Future Home Price Trends

As rental rates in Texas show signs of discounting, they offer a critical clue to potential home price trends not only within the state but across the broader Sun Belt region. If rental discounts are indeed a leading indicator, the moderation in Texas might signal a forthcoming stabilization or even a decline in home prices in other parts of the Sun Belt. This trend could provide much-needed relief for home buyers who have been grappling with escalating prices in recent years.


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