The upcoming presidential election in November holds significant potential to shape the future of the technology, media, and telecommunications industries, according to a recent analysis by financial firm Raymond James. Known for their accurate predictions during the 2020 election, their latest research dives deep into how different political outcomes could affect key sectors and stocks, providing investors with valuable insights on how to navigate an uncertain market landscape.
Raymond James suggests that the re-election of Donald Trump could present notable opportunities for the technology sector, particularly in areas where Trump’s policies focus on reducing regulatory oversight. The firm’s Washington policy analyst, Ed Mills, highlights how Trump’s deregulatory approach could benefit industries like artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers, areas where reducing federal oversight could unlock significant innovation. By loosening reporting requirements and pushing for more nuclear energy to support the high energy demands of data centers, companies in these fields may find it easier to move forward with new technologies and ambitious projects.
However, a Trump presidency could also introduce new challenges, particularly in the form of rising tensions with China. The semiconductor industry, in particular, could face setbacks due to the likelihood of stricter export controls. These increased controls might disrupt the supply chains for companies that heavily rely on Chinese production, especially firms deeply embedded in the global semiconductor market. Companies that rely on Chinese imports for parts and materials may face disruptions, creating a ripple effect that could impact production timelines and increase costs.
Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) could also be influenced by the Trump administration, particularly cross-border deals. With increased scrutiny and possible barriers on international mergers, companies looking to expand globally might face significant roadblocks. This could limit global expansion for U.S. firms, but it could also serve to strengthen domestic industries such as AI and semiconductor production. U.S.-based companies, particularly those in tech and manufacturing, might find themselves in a more favorable position to compete against foreign counterparts if Trump’s policies encourage a more protectionist approach to economic growth.
On the flip side, if Vice President Kamala Harris were to win the presidency, the regulatory landscape for technology could shift in a different direction. According to Raymond James, a Harris administration would likely bring stricter regulations, particularly in the rapidly growing AI sector. Harris is expected to focus on ethics, consumer protection, and safety in AI development, with policies aimed at creating a more tightly controlled environment. For companies in AI, these regulations could increase compliance costs, as they would have to adhere to higher standards and more rigorous testing protocols.
However, while these regulations may present short-term hurdles for companies, they could also lead to a more stable and trustworthy AI landscape in the long term. Companies that can quickly adapt to new rules and demonstrate ethical practices in AI development could find themselves in a stronger market position. Such regulations might attract consumers and businesses that prioritize security and ethical standards, offering a competitive edge to companies that excel in these areas. In this context, the stricter oversight might lead to long-term growth opportunities for firms capable of navigating the evolving regulatory framework.
A Democratic victory could also lead to increased focus on climate policy, particularly in sectors that benefit from renewable energy initiatives. Cloud service providers, such as Veeva Systems, are singled out by Raymond James as potential beneficiaries of these policies. Companies that focus on energy efficiency and carbon-neutral operations could see significant gains under a Harris-led administration as the federal government pushes for more aggressive action on climate change. Businesses involved in renewable energy, solar technology, and electric vehicles could also experience growth due to government incentives and increased funding for green technologies.
Companies like Jabil and Flex, which have diversified into solar and other renewable technologies, could see significant growth from Harris’ policies aimed at promoting clean energy and reducing carbon emissions. With a Democratic administration likely to introduce more incentives for renewable energy projects, these companies could benefit from both increased demand and government support in the form of subsidies or tax incentives. This could drive investment in new technologies, further boosting the renewable energy sector.
The financial technology (fintech) industry is also expected to experience shifts depending on the election outcome. If Harris wins, Visa is highlighted as a potential standout in the fintech space. Analyst John Davis notes that higher corporate taxes could make Visa more appealing to investors in both tech and finance. Visa could also benefit from increased scrutiny on big banks and large-cap tech firms, as tighter regulations might drive capital toward smaller, more agile fintech companies. In this scenario, Visa could attract more attention as a safer, more efficient alternative in the financial sector.
If the election leads to a split government—where neither party holds full control—tech companies like Microsoft could find themselves in an advantageous position. A balanced government would likely result in a more moderate regulatory environment, limiting any party’s ability to push through aggressive changes. This could allow companies to continue growing without facing the disruptive influence of rapid policy shifts. Under a split government, firms like Nvidia, which is heavily involved in AI and semiconductor production, could thrive due to the sustained demand for AI technologies and potential business ties with countries like Saudi Arabia.
Telecommunications companies, too, stand to be impacted by the outcome of the election. Under a Trump presidency, firms like Verizon might find more freedom to pursue mergers, while a Harris administration could bring stricter antitrust enforcement. This could be especially challenging for companies like AT&T, which have already faced scrutiny over their large market share. T-Mobile’s planned acquisition of U.S. Cellular could face regulatory challenges regardless of the election result, given the current focus on maintaining competition within the telecommunications industry.
A Republican sweep of the election could bring additional benefits to companies like Salesforce and Apple, which could gain from business-friendly policies such as lower corporate taxes. Texas Instruments, a leader in analog semiconductors, might also experience growth, particularly if tariffs and trade restrictions on international markets are rolled back. With fewer regulations and lower taxes, smaller fintech and tech firms like Shift4 Payments could outperform larger, more established companies as investors seek higher returns in a more relaxed regulatory climate.
Regardless of the election outcome, some companies are poised to perform well. Cybersecurity firms like CrowdStrike and Datadog, for example, are likely to be critical players in the IT sector’s future. As businesses continue to prioritize data security, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, these companies are expected to thrive. Despite some challenges in recent years, CrowdStrike’s stock has already posted strong gains this year.
Intel, which has struggled with market share in recent years, stands to benefit from the CHIPS Act. This act aims to support domestic semiconductor production through government subsidies, which could help Intel regain its footing in the competitive chip market.
Major tech companies like Alphabet and Meta Platforms are well-positioned to succeed regardless of who wins. A potential ban on TikTok could force advertisers to redirect spending to these platforms, boosting their revenue. Additionally, a Republican victory could help these companies by maintaining light regulations on AI, allowing them to continue innovating with minimal oversight.
The outcome of the November election will have far-reaching implications for the technology, media, and telecommunications sectors. Raymond James’ analysis provides a roadmap for investors to navigate this uncertainty, helping them capitalize on opportunities no matter which political party comes out on top.
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