On the 11th of September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the CPI data for the month of August. Year-over-year, headline prices increased 2.5% coming in slightly lower than the anticipated 2.6% and the Headline month-over-month increase was 0.2%. Core year-over-year was up 3.2% and month-over-month was an increase of 0.3%, coming in hotter than the expectations of 0.2%. The market at first reacted quite negatively to these numbers as it looked as though a smaller, 25 basis-point cut was now the likely reality, however, the market rallied into the end of the work ending at weekly highs. One of the main reasons for this rally is the fact that although Core CPI is remaining sticky, it shouldn’t be anywhere near enough to stop the Fed from cutting rates on the 18th, even if that cut will only be a minor 25 point cut.
The chart below is showing how inflation has now reached lows that it hasn’t seen since the start of 2021:
As we can see from the numbers and the chart, inflation is slowly making its way closer to the Fed’s goal of 2%. However, closer doesn’t mean it's time to aggressively start cutting Fed rates. In recent weeks Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Fed, has said that the data indicates that we could begin cutting rates. While most people are hoping for a large 50 basis-point cut, it seems as if the most likely course of action for the Fed will be to start with a minor, 25 point cut at their September 18th meeting. Elyse Ausenbaugh, head of investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Wealth Management said, “We think prospects for a gradual – rather than aggressive – rate cutting cycle should be embraced by investors. That would reflect broader economic health, and a normalization of activity as the vestiges of pandemic-era distortions fizzle away.” The chart below is from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch futures, this financial instrument measures how market participants are pricing in the possibility of a rate cut and the extent of the cut:
The above graph shows that the markets are currently pricing in a 55% chance of a 25 basis-point cut for the September 18th meeting while pricing in a slightly smaller, 45% chance, of a 50 basis-point cut. The market is continually pricing in a higher chance of a larger rate cut than just the minor 25 basis point, this may not align well with the fact that it seems the Fed is poised to cut rates, but most likely only a 25 basis point cut.
It seems that the Fed has locked itself into at least a 25 point cut, if the Fed were to announce that for some reason they will not be cutting rates, it will send the markets into a freefall frenzy. On the flipside, a rate cut of any degree should be news for a strong market rally.
コメント